CLA Outlook: Investment Strategies for Market Volatility from Tariffs

With the economy so volatile, it’s crucial to understand the shifting dynamics of trade policies and investment strategies.

The current economic environment presents both challenges and opportunities. From navigating tariffs to strategic investments, investors must remain informed and agile. 

By understanding these dynamics, businesses and individuals can position themselves for resilience and growth, turning potential obstacles into avenues for advancement.

The economic effects of tariffs 

Using tariffs as a revenue strategy has sparked significant debate. Tariffs aim to balance the trade deficit and raise revenue but carry complex implications. Tariffs — indirectly — raise taxes. But when you raise taxes, you're likely to slow economic growth. 

The current short-term situation may result in easier monetary policy, including the Federal Reserve potentially cutting interest rates. When interest rates ease, fiscal policy may ease as we look at possible lower taxes, whether it's corporate or individual. 

The long-term picture is most likely higher long-term growth because of increased tariff revenue. It may also encourage reshoring of U.S. companies from overseas.

There may be a negative impact on growth because consumer costs are going to be higher. By carefully managing tariffs, the United States can potentially stimulate domestic manufacturing and increase export competitiveness.

Investment strategies amid market volatility

The recent tariffs have caused wild market swings, mainly due to worries of trade war escalations. Uncertainty can also reduce production and halt trade, which can slow the economy. 

With stocks experiencing volatility, a diversified portfolio with bonds and alternative assets can provide better stability. High-quality fixed income serves as a buffer against market turbulence. International stocks should also be considered, as some allocation to international stocks has been helpful in times like this. 

Explore some fixed income options

For investors who want to grab high-quality yield, there are low-risk options. Interest rates are higher compared to 5 – 10 years ago. Because of the higher rates, some people are rebalancing their portfolios and pulling money out of stocks and into bonds. 

U.S. treasuries are the most risk-free asset perceived in the world. With U.S. treasuries, you can borrow anywhere between 4% and 4.6% of the U.S. government. On the flip side, those return rates are typically what an investor gets. With municipal bonds — AAA municipal bonds, or even BBB municipal bonds — the more perceived risk you take, the more return you may get. 

With AAA municipal bonds, investors can receive an almost 7% tax-equivalent yield, or 4.5% nominal yields. When you take out the tax benefit, it becomes 7% in a 30-year space. Sources can be found in the CLA Outlook slides.

5 actions portfolio owners should consider 

During times of market volatility, successful investors stay well informed and prepare for varied scenarios. Explore key actions you can take to navigate these uncertain times:

Review your asset allocation

• Align your portfolio with your long-term goals and risk tolerance.
• Consider rebalancing your portfolio to maintain your desired asset allocation.

Harvest tax losses

• Take advantage of market downturns to sell investments at a loss, which can offset gains and reduce your taxable income. 

Consider Roth conversions

• Converting traditional IRA assets to a Roth IRA during market dips can be beneficial, as you may pay taxes on a lower account value. 

Put excess cash to work

• If you have cash reserves, consider investing in opportunities aligning with your financial strategy. Money market accounts may be an attractive option for investors seeking a higher return rate on their cash reserves while maintaining liquidity and low risk.

Gifting strategies

• Use market volatility to make strategic gifts, potentially reducing your taxable estate while benefiting your beneficiaries.

How CLA can help with investment strategies for market volatility

No matter your financial position, incorporating sound tax and wealth advisory could help you achieve more. Aligning your investments, estate plans, and business transactions within a comprehensive tax and wealth planning approach can bring big returns.

We’re here to help you through these times. Contact us to discuss these strategies in more detail.

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