CLA OUTLOOK

Key Insights for Sound Financial Strategies

Take steps to prepare for changing scenarios.
APRIL 6 WEEKLY INSIGHTS
Small caps outperform through recent market volatility
  • With the first quarter complete, small caps have outperformed, with the Russell 2000 up 1.5% compared to a 3.6% decline in the S&P 500. 
  • Several headwinds facing small businesses are easing as economic activity improves, interest rates decline, and producer inflation moderates. 
  • Small caps continue to play an important role in equity allocations across market cycles, particularly when valuation gaps versus large caps widen. 
  • CLA increased its allocation to small caps at the start of the year, raising exposure from 6% to 8% within our equity exposure. (Source: Morningstar)
Unemployment steady at 4.4% as labor market continues to normalize
  • While monthly jobs numbers have become more volatile, including downward revisions, unemployment remains steady at 4.4%.
  • Job openings came in last week at an estimated 6.88 million, returning to pre-pandemic levels as the stimulus-created surplus has subsided.
  • Layoffs have remained contained consistent with easing wage pressures reinforcing a gradual labor market normalization.
  • The Federal Reserve views current labor market conditions as consistent with its maximum employment mandate supporting a measured and patient stance. (Source: BLS)
Iran conflict continues to shake markets as president addresses nation
  • Last week, investors watched closely for signs of an end to hostilities as President Donald Trump delivered a national address with an important update on Iran.
  • Crude moved higher as global supply continues to be held hostage at the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations offer no clear timeline on the passage’s reopening.
  • Investor sentiment remains cautious amid elevated short-term volatility, though recent market rebounds underscore the importance of staying invested.
  • For long-term investors, disciplined asset allocation, regular rebalancing, and diversification remain key to navigating periods of uncertainty.
  • Energy stocks continue to trend higher highlighting the need to invest across sectors while tilting exposure to energy with dividend growth and small caps. 
Strategic Opportunities

The Big Picture for 2026

The CLA Outlook signals a turning point: stabilized inflation, growth above trend, and easing interest rates. Explore the key forces influencing portfolios in the year ahead.
  • Economic outlook

  • Fiscal policy

  • Fixed income outlook

  • Equity outlook

  • Alternatives outlook

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