The Congressional Trade Agenda: Expectations for Fall 2024

In this video from The Franklin Partnership, contributing author Omar Nashashibi discusses the status of federal trade legislation considering the upcoming election.

With only 13 legislative business days scheduled for September, and zero for October, the question is less about on which bills will become law, but rather about establishing priorities for the lame duck session following the November election.

Senators, representatives, and their staff spent much of August preparing to reveal their policy proposals in September in anticipation of possible action. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced plans for the House to reserve a week in September to consider legislation related to China, specifically de minimis exemptions and export controls.

House to likely weigh de minimis treatment for goods subject to Section 301 tariffs

The bills that could see floor action include several which cleared the House Ways and Means Committee and other committees earlier this year. Sources say Johnson intends to schedule a vote in September on legislation barring goods subject to Section 301 tariffs from receiving de minimis treatment. Currently, U.S. Customs exempts goods valued at below $800 from tariffs and taxes due to the de minimis levels increasing from $200 in 2016 to the current $800 value.

The de minimis legislation is likely to undergo further transformation as senators in August released a bipartisan proposal for more sweeping reforms to de minimis than those in the House Ways and Means Committee-passed legislation. Led by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden (D-OR), the legislation further narrows de minimis eligibility by excluding certain products considered “import sensitive” in addition to any imports subject to a tariff, duty, or quota.

House also likely consider barring certain outbound investment in China

If the House votes in September on trade, it’s also likely to consider bills barring certain outbound investment in China. The bills include bipartisan legislation approved by the House Foreign Affairs Committee to review those investments or track closer to legislation supported by some on the House Financial Services Committee pushing for a sanctions-based approach to barring investments in certain Chinese sectors.

Export controls and outbound investment restrictions are regularly discussed as an area needing increased attention. Officials at the Commerce Departments’ Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) recently met with congressional officials to discuss steps the agency is taking to address export controls and tools BIS may need to improve enforcement.

The Generalized System of Preferences: What to expect

It’s unclear either chamber will vote prior to the election on the Generalized System of Preferences legislation to retroactively restore duty-free status for 119 developing countries and territories. While receiving bipartisan support, it remains more likely lawmakers will work to include a GSP solution as part of a year-end package or by attaching to the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) bill as the Pentagon’s annual policy measure is considered must pass legislation.

With lawmakers back in Washington for such a short period, expect the discussions in September to shape action in December following the election. The condensed process puts added pressure on industries reliant upon stability in trade policy especially related to de minimis imports, controls on exports and investments, and whether imports from developing nations will receive duty free treatment.

How CLA can help with federal trade matters

CLA will provide an update after the lame duck session on which bills made it through the process and which priorities are pushed to the next Congress in 2025. In the interim, as always, reach out to CLA for real time updates on federal trade policy.