Navigating Value in Uncertainty: Business Deal Strategies for Mid-2025

As we reach the midpoint of 2025, private equity (PE) is defined by a complex interplay of macroeconomic volatility, geopolitical shifts, and evolving investor expectations. For privately held businesses, these dynamics are reshaping how value is created, preserved, and realized.

Macroeconomic crosswinds: A mixed bag

The U.S. economy in mid-2025 presents a paradox. While inflation has moderated and interest rates have stabilized, uncertainty around trade policies — particularly tariffs — has introduced new volatility.

This uncertainty has led to choppy deal activity. While overall deal count has fluctuated, deal value is up 61% year-to-date, suggesting investors are focusing on fewer but larger, high-conviction transactions.

Growth equity: A bright spot

Amid the turbulence, growth equity has emerged as a standout performer. Deal count and value in this segment are up over 50% year-to-date, driven by investor appetite for scalable, tech-enabled businesses with strong fundamentals. For privately held companies in growth mode, this presents an opportunity to attract capital at favorable valuations.

Liquidity pressures and exit strategies

The second quarter has seen a slowdown in exits, exacerbating liquidity pressures across the PE ecosystem. Firms are responding by accelerating full exits where possible and revisiting value-creation plans. Strategic sales have become a preferred route, as evidenced by high-profile transactions like GTCR’s sale of Worldpay.

Privately held businesses should prepare for more rigorous due diligence and a heightened focus on revenue quality, margin resilience, and operational scalability.

Fundraising friction

Fundraising remains a challenge. As of May, U.S. PE fundraising is down 40% year-to-date. However, funds that are closing are doing so faster and often exceeding targets, indicating a flight to quality. For business owners, this means aligning with top-tier sponsors who can still deploy capital effectively.

Strategic implications for privately held businesses

To thrive in this environment, privately held businesses should:

• Double down on operational efficiency to weather valuation scrutiny.
• Invest in digital transformation to appeal to growth-focused investors.
• Explore strategic alliances or minority investments to unlock liquidity without full exits.
• Stay agile in response to policy shifts, particularly around tariffs and cross-border trade.

How CLA can help with deal services

Mid-2025 is a moment of recalibration for private equity and privately held businesses alike. While uncertainty persists, so do opportunities — CLA is available to help you quickly adapt, focus on fundamentals, and align with the quality capital partners.