CLA Outlook — Key Insights for Sound Financial Strategies
Take steps to prepare for changing scenarios.
June 30 Weekly Insights
Markets are resilient with the U.S. military becoming involved in the Middle East
Over the past 35 years, markets have been mostly resilient following the start of U.S. military conflicts in the Middle East. From a macro perspective, oil moves higher just before the escalation on fear of supply disruption, though U.S. military presence and coordination with allies helps to keep oil prices controlled. Maintaining a high-quality, U.S.-centric equity allocation helps navigate geopolitical escalation.
Equities look more richly valued when valuations are adjusted for future earnings growth
Rich valuations and continued divergence between price and earnings growth is a large reason why CLA has scaled back our subsequent five-year equity return estimates. Small cap stocks and high dividend yielding stocks look attractive from a valuation standpoint, but only high dividend stocks have five-year earnings growth projections at their median level.
Challenges remain in private equity, but there are signs of life
Uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates continue to put pressure on any sudden resurgence in activity across the private markets, but investors in older private equity should start to see distributions slowly pick up throughout the year.
Develop strong financial strategies
Tune in to the second-quarter session of the CLA Outlook as we discuss timely topics around policy, the economy, and year-to-date market performance.
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